Coverage, but honestly counted
Pipeline coverage, open pipeline divided by target, only means something after qualification hygiene: three times coverage of real deals funds a plan, five times coverage of wishes funds a surprise. Compute your own ratio from history, closed revenue against the pipeline that produced it, rather than borrowing an industry number.
Watch creation rate as hard as coverage: the pipeline you close this quarter was created one to two quarters ago, which means top-of-funnel effort is the earliest forecast you have.
The thirty minute weekly review
Review the pipeline weekly, same day, three questions per deal: what did the buyer do since last week, what is the next buyer commitment and its date, and what do you need to get it? Deals answer in buyer actions or they age publicly. No deal talk outside the questions, no relitigating strategy, thirty minutes for a small team.
Aging is the metric that pays: any deal beyond your historical stage duration gets a decision, a specific unblocking action or a downgrade. Slippage, deals that move their close date, gets counted, because a deal that slips twice is statistically a deal that closes never, and everyone in the room should know it.
Forecasting with ten deals
Skip weighted probabilities at small scale; multiplying guesses does not average them into truth. Forecast in three named buckets: committed, buyer has said yes and paperwork is moving; probable, one specific commitment remains and it is scheduled; possible, everything else. Sum the first, add judgment on the second, ignore the third for the forecast and work it for the future.
Then track forecast against outcome monthly, by bucket. Small teams calibrate fast when the misses are visible, and within two quarters the committed bucket becomes a number the founder can say to the bank with a straight face.
The review runs off the record, not memory
The Sales Desk keeps every deal dated, staged and aging in plain sight: the weekly review walks a live board, slippage is counted for you, and the three buckets are a saved view rather than a Friday spreadsheet. Velora summarizes what changed across the pipeline since last week in one readable brief.
Reports track forecast against outcome by bucket, which is how a small team gets calibrated. One workspace, one meter, from the Plus membership.
Frequently asked questions
How much pipeline coverage do I need?
Enough that your own historical close rate covers target, commonly three to four times for qualified pipelines. Compute it from your history; borrowed benchmarks import someone else’s hygiene.
How do small teams forecast revenue?
Three named buckets, committed, probable, possible, summed with judgment, and a monthly calibration of forecast against outcome. Weighted probabilities on ten deals is arithmetic on guesses.
What is deal slippage and why track it?
A deal moving its expected close date. Once is life; twice is a signal the deal is not qualified. Counting slippage publicly changes how close dates get set, which fixes the forecast at the source.