The 13 week forecast
Thirteen weeks, one column each: opening cash, expected receipts by week based on when customers actually pay rather than when invoices say, expected disbursements, payroll, rent, taxes, vendors, debt, closing cash. The horizon is chosen because it is long enough to act, you can accelerate receivables, delay purchases and arrange financing inside a quarter, and short enough to be honest.
Build it once from bank history, then update weekly with actuals against forecast. The variance column is where the learning lives: within a month you know which customers pay late, which weeks compress, and how much your own optimism costs.
Runway without self-deception
Runway is cash divided by true net burn, and the self-deception hides in the denominator: use trailing average burn including the lumpy items, taxes, insurance, annual renewals, not last month’s flattering number. Growing companies should also compute the stressed case, receipts slipping thirty days, because that is what a bad quarter actually does to collections.
State runway in months and reforecast monthly. The founder who knows the real number makes hiring, pricing and financing decisions on time; the one who knows the flattering number makes them ninety days late, which is the expensive way.
The levers you already own
Before financing, work the timing levers: invoice on delivery rather than month-end, deposits on new work, shorter terms for new customers, card or direct debit where the product suits it, and a same-week nudge on anything past due, because receivables age fastest in silence. On the outflow side: negotiated vendor terms, annual purchases only where the discount is real, and tax set-asides moved out of operating cash before they feel spendable.
The weekly review is where levers get pulled: fifteen minutes on closing cash by week, the three biggest receipts to chase, the disbursements that can move. Companies that keep this ritual simply stop having cash emergencies; they have cash decisions instead.
The Financial Cockpit keeps the sheet alive
VelorStrategy’s Financial Cockpit carries cash flow, runway and the operating numbers in one view, grounded in your own figures, and the Tools Desk sits in the same workspace as the invoicing that feeds receipts, so the forecast and the chasing live one click apart.
Velora drafts the weekly cash summary and flags receivables aging past your norms. Operator finance without a finance hire, from the $19 Plus membership.
Frequently asked questions
What is a 13 week cash flow forecast?
A weekly view of opening cash, expected receipts and disbursements, and closing cash, thirteen weeks out: long enough to act on a problem, short enough to stay honest. Updated weekly against actuals.
How do I calculate my company’s runway?
Cash divided by trailing average net burn, including lumpy items like taxes and renewals, with a stressed case where receipts slip thirty days. Reforecast monthly.
How can I improve cash flow without borrowing?
Invoice on delivery, take deposits, shorten terms for new customers, nudge past-due invoices the same week, and negotiate vendor timing. Timing levers usually move more cash than cost cuts.